FIRST LOOK · SUBSCRIBERS ONLY
Trail running shoes and hiking shoes are not the same keyword
Google search data puts trail running shoes at 201,000 searches a month, up 306% year over year. Hiking shoes, from the same source, just matched its own all-time high this month: 135,000 a month, up 23% year over year. Both real. Both growing. And trail runners are hitting their summer peak as you read this.
Compare The Two Styles
They are not the same item. A trail running shoe is low-cut, mesh upper, under eleven ounces, rarely waterproofed. A hiking shoe carries a stiffer midsole, a heavier build, and almost always waterproof (look for a Gore-Tex tag). If you’ve been calling a trail runner "hiking shoes" because it felt close enough, that is probably costing you the sale. The five second test: bend the outsole in half. A trail runner folds easily.
This one is next in the queue, not posted yet. You’re seeing this data before social media does. Dotted lines on the chart above are a conservative BOLO Trends forecast, not sourced search data, projected from the trailing six-month trend at half the observed slope.
This Week's Signals
LIVE KEYWORD STRATEGY SESSION
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SIGNAL 01 · OUTDOOR, SURGING
Patagonia windbreaker just broke a year-long flat line.
Per Google search data, “Patagonia windbreaker” is at 14,800 searches a month, up 517% year over year. It held between 1,600 and 2,900 for twelve straight months, then climbed 2,400 to 6,600 to 14,800 over the last two pulls. This is hiking season demand landing on a specific, recognizable brand name, not generic search noise.
Source these windbreakers specifically or get them out of your death pile. The packable, stuff-into-its-own-pocket style is the one buyers are naming.
SIGNAL 02 · MEN'S ACCESSORIES, SURGING
Men's aviator sunglasses TRIPLED.
Google search data shows aviator sunglasses men at 14,800 searches a month, up 1,380% year over year. It sat at 1,000 a year ago and has climbed three straight months: 2,400, then 8,100, then 14,800. Men's accessories rarely move this fast without a real style shift behind it.
Source aviators when the price and condition make sense. Title them specifically, do not bury them under a generic "men’s sunglasses" listing.
SIGNAL 03 · WOMEN'S TOPS, SURGING, WATCHING
Off shoulder top women stepped up and stayed there.
Google's numbers have “off shoulder top women” at 8,100 searches a month, up 1,977% year over year. It sat under 500 for a full year, jumped to 8,100 in April, and held there through May. That is a real step change, not a one-month blip, but it is also the smallest volume on this board.
Watch, do not overcommit yet. One more month holding at 8,100 confirms it.
SIGNAL 04 · FOOTWEAR, BUILDING
Penny loafers is building into the fall window early.
Google's search data has penny loafers at 74,000 a month, holding flat for three straight months. Last year the same keyword peaked at 110,000 in August and September, cooled to 90,500 by December. This year's plateau at 74,000 looks like the pre-ramp floor ahead of that same seasonal climb.
Start sourcing now, before the seasonal ramp peaks.
THE RECEIPTS
The hiking season call, revisited
Back in April, our Hiking Season video called three keywords. Here is what happened since, sourced fresh from Google search data this week.
Hiking pants women, called at 33,100/mo: CONFIRMED, now 40,500, +22% YoY
Hiking shoes women, called at 8,100/mo: CONFIRMED, now 9,900, +22% YoY
Hiking boots women, called at 33,100/mo: FADED, now 6,600, −80% YoY
Not every category in a seasonal call moves the same direction. Two of three held or grew. Hiking boots women did not. Outdoor demand is real again this cycle, patagonia windbreaker above is proof of that, but it is not universal within the category.
THE CLOSER
Hiking season is still alive and well, pick up quality men's aviators if you see them and don't sleep on penny loafers in great condition.
And now you know.
BOLO Trends · @bolotrends