Saw This Coming...

BOLO TRENDS
What's Still BOLO · Issue 003 · Thursday, July 16 2026

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On May 12 we called bermuda shorts as a BOLO and said the peak would land in June at 74,000 searches a month. Google search data says June came in at exactly 74,000.

This isn’t about taking a victory lap. It’s about what happened next last year. From that same summer peak, bermuda shorts fell to 49,500 in August and 33,100 by September. Less than half the demand in just eight weeks.

If you sourced bermudas on that call, they are worth more right now than they will be at any point for the next ten months. If they already sold, you made the right move!

THE MOVE: List every pair of bermuda shorts you own this week.

Look at the orange line on that chart. That is culottes, and it just passed bermuda shorts.

Google search data shows culottes at 90,500 searches a month. That is the highest we have ever recorded, and it is the sixth straight month it has gone up.

Here is why we trust it. All of last year culottes sat at 40,500 and never moved. Not once. This is not a keyword climbing out of a winter hole and pretending to be a trend. It was flat for twelve months and then it woke up.

If you have these already…make sure they aren’t missing these keywords.

How to tell them apart on the rack:

Bermuda shorts are straight or fitted.

They stop at or just above the knee.

Denim, cotton, linen. Casual.

Culottes are A line and much wider.

They flare like a divided skirt.

They hit mid knee or mid calf. Usually pleated or structured.

If it hangs like a skirt and stops below the knee, it is a culotte. If it hangs like a short and stops at the knee, it is a bermuda.

What does not count: a wide leg crop that tapers at the hem. Culottes do not taper. They flare. If it narrows toward the ankle you have a cropped trouser and it is not going to catch this.

THE MOVE: Go through your listings/death pile tonight. Anything wide, pleated, and below the knee that you titled "wide leg cropped pants" is a culotte. Change the title.

See culottes sold comps on eBay

In May we ran the spring wedding guest dress story. The point then was that the occasion beats the description. Two months of fresh data made that call clearer, not weaker.

Google search data shows floral dress down 33% year over year. Floral maxi, down 45%. Floral sundress, down 33%. Floral midi, down 45%. Four terms. Four for four. And every one of them peaked in April and has fallen every month since.

Wedding guest dress is flat at 110,000 searches a month. Not down. Flat. And last year it held right through August while every floral term bled out.

Floral is a print. Wedding guest is a reason to buy. The print goes out of season in July. The wedding does not.

One more thing, and this is the part that will cost you if you miss it. Use wedding guest dress. Not summer wedding guest dress. The word summer has an expiry date and it is about three weeks out. Last year summer wedding guest dress fell to 3,600 searches by September while the plain term sat at 110,000. Same dress. One word difference. Thirty times the demand.

We spend most of our time telling you that the item beats the label. Shorts are where that’s flipped right now, and you should know when to lead with it.

Every generic shorts term we track is down. Google search data shows denim shorts men down 55% year over year. Cargo shorts men, down 45%. Athletic shorts, down 33%.

Branded athletic shorts are up. Alo yoga shorts, up 524%. Lululemon pace breaker, up 235%. Adidas shorts women, up 83%.

Here is what is actually happening. It is the hottest stretch of the year and the hottest months pull the lightest shorts. Athletic shorts demand is real and it is climbing. It is just not landing on the word "athletic shorts." Last year alo yoga shorts went from 2,900 in June to 8,100 by September. Pace breaker went from 5,400 to 22,200 over the same weeks.

A buyer who wants a light technical short does not search athletic shorts. They already know which one fits them and they type the name.

Jelly sandals women is the strongest sandal we track. Google search data puts it at 33,100 searches a month, up 49% year over year, already above last year's peak. That is a classic BOLO.

It is also the one that falls off a cliff. Last June jellies were at 22,200. By September they were at 2,900. They lose almost 90% of their demand in three months, every year.

Kitten heel sandals is at 27,100, up 22%. It does not spike as hard. It does not fall as hard either. Last September, while jellies were at 2,900, kitten heel sandals were still holding 12,100.

So source both. List them completely differently.

How to tell which one you are holding: molded PVC or rubber, no lining, one piece, that is a jelly. Heel under two inches with a leather or fabric upper, that is a kitten heel sandal.

We called fisherman sandals at 20,000 searches a month climbing toward a 50,000 peak in May. It peaked. Google search data now shows 33,100 in June, down 33% year over year, and last year it fell to 8,100 by September.

The window closed. That is what windows do, and knowing when one shuts is worth as much as knowing when one opens.

If you have fisherman sandals, they sell this month.

See fisherman sandals sold comps on eBay

Last Thursday we called patagonia windbreaker at 14,800 searches a month and told you to source them. Monday's Google search data put June at 1,900. That is not a cooldown. That is back to the flat line it sat on for twelve months before the spike, and it is exactly where it was last June.

We called a two month spike a trend. Two months is not enough.

New rule, starting with this issue: a spike needs three straight months before it goes on this board as SURGING. Two months is a watch, not a call.

If you bought on that call, hold them. Outdoor shells move in the fall. But the urgency we sold you was not there, and that is on us.

List your bermudas and your jellies this week. Retitle your florals as wedding guest dresses. Source the brand name athletic shorts. Hold your kitten heels for fall.

BOLO Trends · @bolotrends

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